tracking 4 frontier labs · updated jul 9 2026

The frontier moved in 30 days

Meta, xAI, OpenAI, and Anthropic each shipped a new flagship model between June 9 and July 9, 2026 — and two got pulled back by governments before the dust settled. Specs, benchmarks, pricing, funding, and the timeline, side by side.

0
Frontier labs shipped
in a single 30-day window
$0B
Combined latest valuation
OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI
0×
Cheapest → priciest API
$1.25 to $50 per M tokens
0
Days a flagship model was offline
Claude Fable 5, export-control suspension
META · $1.25 / $4.25 per M tokens — cheapest of the fourxAI · #4 of 168 models on Artificial Analysis Intelligence IndexOpenAI · $852B valuation after a $122B round, Mar 31 2026ANTHROPIC · $965B valuation, nearly 3x its Series G in 3 monthsOPENAI · GPT-5.6 gated 12 days for a government CAISI safety reviewANTHROPIC · Claude Fable 5 suspended 22 days by US export controlsxAI · Grok 4.5 claims 4.2x fewer output tokens than Opus 4.8 on SWE-Bench ProMETA · Muse Spark 1.1 is Meta's first-ever paid API modelMETA · $1.25 / $4.25 per M tokens — cheapest of the fourxAI · #4 of 168 models on Artificial Analysis Intelligence IndexOpenAI · $852B valuation after a $122B round, Mar 31 2026ANTHROPIC · $965B valuation, nearly 3x its Series G in 3 monthsOPENAI · GPT-5.6 gated 12 days for a government CAISI safety reviewANTHROPIC · Claude Fable 5 suspended 22 days by US export controlsxAI · Grok 4.5 claims 4.2x fewer output tokens than Opus 4.8 on SWE-Bench ProMETA · Muse Spark 1.1 is Meta's first-ever paid API model
Side by side

Specs, benchmarks & pricing

Switch views — every number is footnoted where it's third-party sourced, conflicting, or simply undisclosed.

SpecMETAxAIOpenAIAnthropic
LaunchedJul 9, 2026Jul 8, 2026Jul 9, 2026 (public)Jun 9, 2026 (restored Jul 1)
Context window1M tokens500K tokens~1.5M — unconfirmed1M tokens / 128K out
ModalityText, image, video, PDF, audioText + image in, text outNot officially detailedText + high-res vision
Built forAgentic + computer useAgentic coding (w/ Cursor)Agentic coding, cyber/bio-heavyLong-horizon autonomous work
ReasoningMultimodal reasoning, multi-agent orchestrationAlways-on ‘high’ effort, non-disableableFrontier agentic/reasoning tierAlways-on thinking, effort param low→max
Pricing (in / out per M)$1.25 / $4.25$2.00 / $6.00$5.00 / $30.00 (Sol)$10.00 / $50.00
AccessMeta Model API (preview, US)xAI API, Grok app, CursorAPI/preview only, gatedClaude API, Bedrock, Vertex
Beyond the four

State of the art

Widening the lens: Gemini 3.1 Pro and DeepSeek V4-Pro top the published benchmark scores outright — the four hero labs aren't the whole story. Every cell below is tagged by provenance: vendor-reported, independently confirmed, or not disclosed.

Anthropic 8/8 disclosed
Google 5/8 disclosed
OpenAI 0/8 disclosed
xAI 2/8 disclosed
Meta 1/8 disclosed
DeepSeek 6/8 disclosed
Qwen 4/8 disclosed
BenchmarkAnthropicGoogleOpenAIxAIMetaDeepSeekQwen
GPQA Diamond
Anthropic's own launch post gives no number elsewhere — sources conflict on the exact figure.
88.5
vendor
94.3
vendor
not disclosed
not disclosed
not disclosed
90.1
vendor
92.4
vendor
MMLU / MMLU-Pro91.2
vendor
not disclosed
not disclosed
not disclosed
not disclosed
87.5
vendor
not disclosed
SWE-bench Verified
Anthropic's figure is the only one independently reproduced (vals.ai) — everyone else is vendor-reported or undisclosed.
95.0
✓ ind.
80.6
vendor
not disclosed
not disclosed
not disclosed
80.6
vendor
80.4
vendor
SWE-bench Pro
Anthropic's 80.3% is contested — measured on its own scaffolding, not a neutral harness.
80.3
vendor
not disclosed
not disclosed
64.7
vendor
not disclosed
55
vendor
60.6
vendor
ARC-AGI-2
Anthropic's ~12% may reference ARC-AGI-1, not -2 — treat with caution.
12
vendor
77.1
vendor
not disclosed
not disclosed
not disclosed
71.8
vendor
not disclosed
Humanity's Last Exam
Meta claims "state of the art" on HLE but publishes no number.
53.3
✓ ind.
44.4
vendor
not disclosed
not disclosed
not disclosed
37.7
vendor
41.4
vendor
LMArena Elo / rank#1 at launch, suspended Jun 12
vendor
#3 overall
vendor
not disclosed
not disclosed
not disclosed
not disclosed
not disclosed
Artificial Analysis Index
GPT-5.6 was too new for AA to score at publish time.
60, #1 tracked
vendor
not disclosed
not disclosed
54, #4 of 168
vendor
43, #22 of 551
vendor
not disclosed
not disclosed

Six more models for context

Google
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Google DeepMind · Feb 19, 2026
Context
1M tokens (2M claimed by some sources, unconfirmed)
Pricing
$2.00 / $12.00 per M

Benchmark leader — highest GPQA, ARC-AGI-2, MMLU of any tracked model

DeepSeekopen-weight
DeepSeek V4-Pro
DeepSeek · Apr 24, 2026
Context
1M tokens
Pricing
$0.435 / $0.87 per M

Cheapest frontier-class model; open-weight; independently reviewed by NIST/CAISI

Qwen
Qwen 3.7 Max
Alibaba · May 20, 2026
Context
1M tokens
Pricing
$2.50 / $7.50 per M

Math/science challenger — claims to beat Western labs on HMMT, GPQA

Kimiopen-weight
Kimi K2.6
Moonshot AI · Apr 2026
Context
262K tokens
Pricing
$0.60 / $2.50 per M

Best open-weight agentic/coding value; 1T MoE, 32B active

Mistralopen-weight
Mistral Large 3
Mistral AI · Dec 2, 2025
Context
262K tokens
Pricing
$0.50 / $1.50 per M

Cheapest large open-weight model; enterprise-deployable, not benchmark-topping

Llama 4open-weight
Llama 4 Maverick
Meta (open line) · Apr 5, 2025
Context
1M tokens (10M for Scout variant)
Pricing
open-weight

Meta's last open-weight generation — superseded internally by proprietary Muse Spark; ~15 months dated vs. current frontier

Price vs. capability — the value frontier

Core four only; capability score is the editorial coding/agentic axis from the radar chart above.

Bottom-right is the best value: high capability at low price. Price = average of input/output per-M-token rates.

8 years, 5 labs

Model family tree

Every major release from GPT-1 to GPT-5.6, Claude 1 to Fable 5, Gemini 1.0 to 3.1, Grok 1 to 4.5, and Llama 1 through Meta's pivot to Muse Spark.

OpenAI
Anthropic
Google
xAI
Meta
20182020202220242026
Anthropic · Jul 2026
Claude Fable 5 (global GA)

Restored globally after export controls lifted

Click any marker to see what shipped. 47 releases tracked across five labs, Feb 2018 – Jul 2026.

Every round, not just the latest

Funding, in full

OpenAI (founded 2015), Anthropic (2021), and xAI (2023) — from seed to nine-figure-and-up mega-rounds. Meta excluded; it's a public company.

Valuation growth over time

Confirmed anchor points only — ambiguous or conflicting interim marks omitted (see footnotes).

DateRoundAmountValuationInvestors
Dec 2015Founding pledge$1B pledged (multi-year)Musk, Altman, Brockman, Hoffman, Thiel, AWS, Infosys
Jul 2019Microsoft investment I$1BMicrosoft
Jan 2023Microsoft investment III~$10B~$29BMicrosoft
Apr 2023Secondary tender~$300M$27–29BFounders Fund, Sequoia, a16z, Thrive, K2 Global
Oct 2024Primary round$6.6B$157BThrive Capital, Microsoft, Nvidia, SoftBank, Khosla, MGX
Mar 2025SoftBank-led round$40B$300BSoftBank (lead)
Oct 2025Secondary sale$6.6B sold$500BThrive, SoftBank, Dragoneer, MGX, T. Rowe Price
Passed SpaceX as most valuable private company
Mar 2026Primary round (confirmed anchor)$122B$852BSoftBank, a16z, D.E. Shaw Ventures (co-leads); Amazon, Nvidia carried over; $3B from retail investors (first time)
DateRoundAmountValuationInvestors
May 2021Series A$124M~$550MJaan Tallinn, Dustin Moskovitz, Eric Schmidt
Apr 2022Series B$580M~$6–7B (est.)FTX/Alameda (~$500M), Tallinn
FTX stake complicated by its Nov 2022 collapse
May 2023Series C$450M$4.1BSpark Capital (lead), Google, Salesforce Ventures
Sep 2023–Mar 2024Amazon strategic (tranches)$4B totalAmazon
Jan 2024Series D$750M$18.4BMenlo Ventures (SPV)
Nov 2024Amazon (2nd tranche)$4B (cumulative $8B)Amazon
Mar 2025Series E$3.5B$61.5BLightspeed (lead), Bessemer, Cisco, Fidelity, General Catalyst
Sep 2025Series F$13B$183BICONIQ (lead), Fidelity, Lightspeed, Altimeter, BlackRock, GIC
Feb 2026Series G$30B$380BGIC, Coatue, D.E. Shaw, Dragoneer, Founders Fund, ICONIQ, MGX
May 2026Series H (confirmed anchor)$65B$965BAltimeter, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, Sequoia (leads); Capital Group, Coatue, D1, GIC, ICONIQ, XN
Includes $15B previously-committed hyperscaler capital
DateRoundAmountValuationInvestors
Dec 2023Seed / early capital$134.7M (of $1B authorized)Undisclosed (SEC Form D only)
May 2024Series B$6B$24BValor Equity, Vy Capital, a16z, Sequoia, Fidelity
Dec 2024Series C$6B~$50Ba16z, BlackRock, Fidelity, Nvidia, AMD (strategic)
Mar 2025xAI–X merger (all-stock)$80B (xAI) + $33B (X)
Jul 2025Debt + equity raise$10B ($5B debt + $5B equity)~$113–150B (conflicting)Morgan Stanley (debt)
Sep 2025Unbranded equity round$10B$200BUndisclosed
Jan 2026Series E (confirmed anchor)$20B$230BNvidia, Valor Equity, StepStone, Fidelity, QIA, MGX, Cisco, Tesla (~$2B)
Feb 2026SpaceX acquires xAIAll-stock mergerSpaceX $1T + xAI $250B → $1.25T combined
Largest merger in history; combined entity IPO'd June 12, 2026

Footnotes & conflicts

  • ·OpenAI's Feb 27 / Mar 31, 2026 figures are one round, not two — the announce and close of the same $122B raise.
  • ·Anthropic Series G lead investors conflict across sources (GIC/Coatue vs. D.E. Shaw/Dragoneer/Founders Fund/ICONIQ/MGX) — likely co-leads with no single agreed lead.
  • ·xAI never officially labeled a "Series D" — the Sept 2025 $10B/$200B round is the closest analogue.
  • ·xAI's Series C valuation ($50B vs. $45B) and July 2025 raise valuation ($113B vs. $150B) both have unresolved cross-source conflicts.
  • ·Employee counts for all three labs are estimate-only (no official disclosures): OpenAI ~4,500–7,850; Anthropic ~2,300–5,189; xAI ~4,000–5,479.
  • ·Revenue run-rate figures (OpenAI ~$20B ARR, Anthropic $47B, xAI ~$500M AI-specific) are third-party/media estimates pending each company's still-confidential S-1.
  • ·All three labs have confidentially filed IPO paperwork as of mid-2026; xAI's path went through the SpaceX merger and IPO'd June 12, 2026 at ~$1.77T combined valuation.
30-day window

The week the frontier moved

Zooming back in — funding rounds and launches from the last 30 days in order. Click any marker for detail.

Jan 6 '26
xAI Series E
Funding
$20B raised at a $230B valuation, upsized from an initial $15B target.
Feb '26
xAI acquired by SpaceX
Corporate
Deal completes; brand transitions toward “SpaceXAI.”
Feb '26
Anthropic Series G
Funding
$30B raised at a $380B valuation.
Mar 31 '26
OpenAI closes $122B round
Funding
Valuation reaches $852B post-money; Amazon, SoftBank and Nvidia anchor.
May 28 '26
Anthropic Series H
Funding
$65B raised at a $965B valuation — nearly triple the Series G just three months prior.
Jun 1 '26
Anthropic files for IPO
Corporate
Confidential filing at the $965B valuation.
Jun 9 '26
Claude Fable 5 & Mythos 5 launch
Launch
Anthropic's most capable general model, paired with a restricted cyberdefense variant.
Jun 12 '26
US forces global Fable 5 suspension
Regulatory
Commerce Dept export-control order after a jailbreak reportedly leaked Mythos-tier capability.
Jun 26 '26
GPT-5.6 Sol gated preview begins
Launch
Limited rollout to ~20 partner orgs pending a government safety review.
Jun 28 '26
Grok 4.5 private beta
Launch
SpaceX/Tesla beta testers get early access.
Jun 30 '26
Export controls on Fable 5 lifted
Regulatory
White House clears the suspension after an 18-day review.
Jul 1 '26
Claude Fable 5 restored globally
Launch
Restored with an added safety filter routing <5% of sessions to Opus 4.8.
Jul 8 '26
Grok 4.5 public launch
Launch
Ships under the SpaceXAI brand; not yet available in the EU.
Jul 9 '26
GPT-5.6 public release
Launch
Ends the 12-day CAISI government gating period.
Jul 9 '26
Muse Spark 1.1 launches
Launch
Meta's first paid API model — public preview, US developers only.
What happened next

Reception & controversy

META

First paid API model from Meta — press framed it as “chasing Anthropic and OpenAI” (CNBC) and “Meta Starts Charging for AI” (Bloomberg). Reviewed as credible but not frontier-leading, and priced below every rival.

xAI

Cursor's CEO called it his team's daily driver; best agentic tool-use score on Artificial Analysis's board. Community reaction centered on Musk political-bias trust concerns — the loudest theme on Hacker News — plus an open EU DSA investigation.

OpenAI

Released only after a 12-day, government-brokered CAISI safety review — the standout story. Driven by Sol's top bio-risk score (68.4% on a pathogen capability test) and near-classified cyber capability; OpenAI publicly pushed back on the precedent.

Anthropic

US Commerce Dept forced a global suspension June 12 after a jailbreak reportedly leaked Mythos-tier capability through Fable 5's guardrails. Anthropic argued the same exploit could hit GPT-5.5, unrestricted. Restored July 1; two-thirds of enterprise users had already hedged with fallback models.

Reading the data

  • ·GPT-5.6 discloses no SWE-bench, GPQA, AIME, or ARC-AGI scores at launch — a genuine gap in OpenAI's own materials, not a research miss.
  • ·Claude Fable 5's headline benchmark figures (95% SWE-bench Verified, 80.3% SWE-bench Pro) come from third-party aggregators, not Anthropic's launch post, which speaks mostly in qualitative superlatives.
  • ·Grok 4.5's “1.5T-parameter V9” architecture claim is leak-sourced (CometAPI) and unconfirmed by xAI directly.
  • ·Muse Spark 1.1 has almost no independently disclosed quantitative benchmarks — Meta's post is largely qualitative marketing copy.
  • ·Terminal-Bench 2.1 scores for Fable 5 conflict across sources (88.0% vs. 83.4%) — likely different eval harnesses; both are noted.
  • ·Meta and xAI cumulative funding totals are third-party (Tracxn) rollups, not company-published lifetime figures.
  • ·Meta is a public company — its “funding” isn't comparable to the VC rounds raised by the other three labs.