tracking 4 frontier labs · updated jul 9 2026

The frontier moved in 30 days

Meta, xAI, OpenAI, and Anthropic each shipped a new flagship model between June 9 and July 9, 2026 — and two got pulled back by governments before the dust settled. Specs, benchmarks, pricing, funding, and the timeline, side by side.

0
Frontier labs shipped
in a single 30-day window
$0B
Combined latest valuation
OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI
0×
Cheapest → priciest API
$1.25 to $50 per M tokens
0
Days a flagship model was offline
Claude Fable 5, export-control suspension
META · $1.25 / $4.25 per M tokens — cheapest of the fourxAI · #4 of 168 models on Artificial Analysis Intelligence IndexOpenAI · $852B valuation after a $122B round, Mar 31 2026ANTHROPIC · $965B valuation, nearly 3x its Series G in 3 monthsOPENAI · GPT-5.6 gated 12 days for a government CAISI safety reviewANTHROPIC · Claude Fable 5 suspended 22 days by US export controlsxAI · Grok 4.5 claims 4.2x fewer output tokens than Opus 4.8 on SWE-Bench ProMETA · Muse Spark 1.1 is Meta's first-ever paid API modelMETA · $1.25 / $4.25 per M tokens — cheapest of the fourxAI · #4 of 168 models on Artificial Analysis Intelligence IndexOpenAI · $852B valuation after a $122B round, Mar 31 2026ANTHROPIC · $965B valuation, nearly 3x its Series G in 3 monthsOPENAI · GPT-5.6 gated 12 days for a government CAISI safety reviewANTHROPIC · Claude Fable 5 suspended 22 days by US export controlsxAI · Grok 4.5 claims 4.2x fewer output tokens than Opus 4.8 on SWE-Bench ProMETA · Muse Spark 1.1 is Meta's first-ever paid API model
Side by side

Specs, benchmarks & pricing

Switch views — every number is footnoted where it's third-party sourced, conflicting, or simply undisclosed.

SpecMETAxAIOpenAIAnthropic
LaunchedJul 9, 2026Jul 8, 2026Jul 9, 2026 (public)Jun 9, 2026 (restored Jul 1)
Context window1M tokens500K tokens~1.5M — unconfirmed1M tokens / 128K out
ModalityText, image, video, PDF, audioText + image in, text outNot officially detailedText + high-res vision
Built forAgentic + computer useAgentic coding (w/ Cursor)Agentic coding, cyber/bio-heavyLong-horizon autonomous work
ReasoningMultimodal reasoning, multi-agent orchestrationAlways-on ‘high’ effort, non-disableableFrontier agentic/reasoning tierAlways-on thinking, effort param low→max
Pricing (in / out per M)$1.25 / $4.25$2.00 / $6.00$5.00 / $30.00 (Sol)$10.00 / $50.00
AccessMeta Model API (preview, US)xAI API, Grok app, CursorAPI/preview only, gatedClaude API, Bedrock, Vertex
Beyond the four

State of the art

Widening the lens: Gemini 3.1 Pro and DeepSeek V4-Pro top the published benchmark scores outright — the four hero labs aren't the whole story. Every cell below is tagged by provenance: vendor-reported, independently confirmed, or not disclosed.

Anthropic 8/8 disclosed
Google 5/8 disclosed
OpenAI 0/8 disclosed
xAI 2/8 disclosed
Meta 1/8 disclosed
DeepSeek 6/8 disclosed
Qwen 4/8 disclosed
BenchmarkAnthropicGoogleOpenAIxAIMetaDeepSeekQwen
GPQA Diamond
Anthropic's own launch post gives no number elsewhere — sources conflict on the exact figure.
88.5
vendor
94.3
vendor
not disclosed
—
not disclosed
—
not disclosed
—
90.1
vendor
92.4
vendor
MMLU / MMLU-Pro91.2
vendor
not disclosed
—
not disclosed
—
not disclosed
—
not disclosed
—
87.5
vendor
not disclosed
—
SWE-bench Verified
Anthropic's figure is the only one independently reproduced (vals.ai) — everyone else is vendor-reported or undisclosed.
95.0
✓ ind.
80.6
vendor
not disclosed
—
not disclosed
—
not disclosed
—
80.6
vendor
80.4
vendor
SWE-bench Pro
Anthropic's 80.3% is contested — measured on its own scaffolding, not a neutral harness.
80.3
vendor
not disclosed
—
not disclosed
—
64.7
vendor
not disclosed
—
55
vendor
60.6
vendor
ARC-AGI-2
Anthropic's ~12% may reference ARC-AGI-1, not -2 — treat with caution.
12
vendor
77.1
vendor
not disclosed
—
not disclosed
—
not disclosed
—
71.8
vendor
not disclosed
—
Humanity's Last Exam
Meta claims "state of the art" on HLE but publishes no number.
53.3
✓ ind.
44.4
vendor
not disclosed
—
not disclosed
—
not disclosed
—
37.7
vendor
41.4
vendor
LMArena Elo / rank#1 at launch, suspended Jun 12
vendor
#3 overall
vendor
not disclosed
—
not disclosed
—
not disclosed
—
not disclosed
—
not disclosed
—
Artificial Analysis Index
GPT-5.6 was too new for AA to score at publish time.
60, #1 tracked
vendor
not disclosed
—
not disclosed
—
54, #4 of 168
vendor
43, #22 of 551
vendor
not disclosed
—
not disclosed
—

Six more models for context

Google
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Google DeepMind · Feb 19, 2026
Context
1M tokens (2M claimed by some sources, unconfirmed)
Pricing
$2.00 / $12.00 per M

Benchmark leader — highest GPQA, ARC-AGI-2, MMLU of any tracked model

DeepSeekopen-weight
DeepSeek V4-Pro
DeepSeek · Apr 24, 2026
Context
1M tokens
Pricing
$0.435 / $0.87 per M

Cheapest frontier-class model; open-weight; independently reviewed by NIST/CAISI

Qwen
Qwen 3.7 Max
Alibaba · May 20, 2026
Context
1M tokens
Pricing
$2.50 / $7.50 per M

Math/science challenger — claims to beat Western labs on HMMT, GPQA

Kimiopen-weight
Kimi K2.6
Moonshot AI · Apr 2026
Context
262K tokens
Pricing
$0.60 / $2.50 per M

Best open-weight agentic/coding value; 1T MoE, 32B active

Mistralopen-weight
Mistral Large 3
Mistral AI · Dec 2, 2025
Context
262K tokens
Pricing
$0.50 / $1.50 per M

Cheapest large open-weight model; enterprise-deployable, not benchmark-topping

Llama 4open-weight
Llama 4 Maverick
Meta (open line) · Apr 5, 2025
Context
1M tokens (10M for Scout variant)
Pricing
open-weight

Meta's last open-weight generation — superseded internally by proprietary Muse Spark; ~15 months dated vs. current frontier

Price vs. capability — the value frontier

Core four only; capability score is the editorial coding/agentic axis from the radar chart above.

Bottom-right is the best value: high capability at low price. Price = average of input/output per-M-token rates.

8 years, 5 labs

Model family tree

Every major release from GPT-1 to GPT-5.6, Claude 1 to Fable 5, Gemini 1.0 to 3.1, Grok 1 to 4.5, and Llama 1 through Meta's pivot to Muse Spark.

OpenAI
Anthropic
Google
xAI
Meta
20182020202220242026
Anthropic · Jul 2026
Claude Fable 5 (global GA)

Restored globally after export controls lifted

Click any marker to see what shipped. 47 releases tracked across five labs, Feb 2018 – Jul 2026.

Every round, not just the latest

Funding, in full

OpenAI (founded 2015), Anthropic (2021), and xAI (2023) — from seed to nine-figure-and-up mega-rounds. Meta excluded; it's a public company.

Valuation growth over time

Confirmed anchor points only — ambiguous or conflicting interim marks omitted (see footnotes).

DateRoundAmountValuationInvestors
Dec 2015Founding pledge$1B pledged (multi-year)—Musk, Altman, Brockman, Hoffman, Thiel, AWS, Infosys
Jul 2019Microsoft investment I$1B—Microsoft
Jan 2023Microsoft investment III~$10B~$29BMicrosoft
Apr 2023Secondary tender~$300M$27–29BFounders Fund, Sequoia, a16z, Thrive, K2 Global
Oct 2024Primary round$6.6B$157BThrive Capital, Microsoft, Nvidia, SoftBank, Khosla, MGX
Mar 2025SoftBank-led round$40B$300BSoftBank (lead)
Oct 2025Secondary sale$6.6B sold$500BThrive, SoftBank, Dragoneer, MGX, T. Rowe Price
Passed SpaceX as most valuable private company
Mar 2026Primary round (confirmed anchor)$122B$852BSoftBank, a16z, D.E. Shaw Ventures (co-leads); Amazon, Nvidia carried over; $3B from retail investors (first time)
DateRoundAmountValuationInvestors
May 2021Series A$124M~$550MJaan Tallinn, Dustin Moskovitz, Eric Schmidt
Apr 2022Series B$580M~$6–7B (est.)FTX/Alameda (~$500M), Tallinn
FTX stake complicated by its Nov 2022 collapse
May 2023Series C$450M$4.1BSpark Capital (lead), Google, Salesforce Ventures
Sep 2023–Mar 2024Amazon strategic (tranches)$4B total—Amazon
Jan 2024Series D$750M$18.4BMenlo Ventures (SPV)
Nov 2024Amazon (2nd tranche)$4B (cumulative $8B)—Amazon
Mar 2025Series E$3.5B$61.5BLightspeed (lead), Bessemer, Cisco, Fidelity, General Catalyst
Sep 2025Series F$13B$183BICONIQ (lead), Fidelity, Lightspeed, Altimeter, BlackRock, GIC
Feb 2026Series G$30B$380BGIC, Coatue, D.E. Shaw, Dragoneer, Founders Fund, ICONIQ, MGX
May 2026Series H (confirmed anchor)$65B$965BAltimeter, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, Sequoia (leads); Capital Group, Coatue, D1, GIC, ICONIQ, XN
Includes $15B previously-committed hyperscaler capital
DateRoundAmountValuationInvestors
Dec 2023Seed / early capital$134.7M (of $1B authorized)—Undisclosed (SEC Form D only)
May 2024Series B$6B$24BValor Equity, Vy Capital, a16z, Sequoia, Fidelity
Dec 2024Series C$6B~$50Ba16z, BlackRock, Fidelity, Nvidia, AMD (strategic)
Mar 2025xAI–X merger (all-stock)—$80B (xAI) + $33B (X)—
Jul 2025Debt + equity raise$10B ($5B debt + $5B equity)~$113–150B (conflicting)Morgan Stanley (debt)
Sep 2025Unbranded equity round$10B$200BUndisclosed
Jan 2026Series E (confirmed anchor)$20B$230BNvidia, Valor Equity, StepStone, Fidelity, QIA, MGX, Cisco, Tesla (~$2B)
Feb 2026SpaceX acquires xAIAll-stock mergerSpaceX $1T + xAI $250B → $1.25T combined—
Largest merger in history; combined entity IPO'd June 12, 2026

Footnotes & conflicts

  • ·OpenAI's Feb 27 / Mar 31, 2026 figures are one round, not two — the announce and close of the same $122B raise.
  • ·Anthropic Series G lead investors conflict across sources (GIC/Coatue vs. D.E. Shaw/Dragoneer/Founders Fund/ICONIQ/MGX) — likely co-leads with no single agreed lead.
  • ·xAI never officially labeled a "Series D" — the Sept 2025 $10B/$200B round is the closest analogue.
  • ·xAI's Series C valuation ($50B vs. $45B) and July 2025 raise valuation ($113B vs. $150B) both have unresolved cross-source conflicts.
  • ·Employee counts for all three labs are estimate-only (no official disclosures): OpenAI ~4,500–7,850; Anthropic ~2,300–5,189; xAI ~4,000–5,479.
  • ·Revenue run-rate figures (OpenAI ~$20B ARR, Anthropic $47B, xAI ~$500M AI-specific) are third-party/media estimates pending each company's still-confidential S-1.
  • ·All three labs have confidentially filed IPO paperwork as of mid-2026; xAI's path went through the SpaceX merger and IPO'd June 12, 2026 at ~$1.77T combined valuation.
30-day window

The week the frontier moved

Zooming back in — funding rounds and launches from the last 30 days in order. Click any marker for detail.

Jan 6 '26
xAI Series E
Funding
$20B raised at a $230B valuation, upsized from an initial $15B target.
Feb '26
xAI acquired by SpaceX
Corporate
Deal completes; brand transitions toward “SpaceXAI.”
Feb '26
Anthropic Series G
Funding
$30B raised at a $380B valuation.
Mar 31 '26
OpenAI closes $122B round
Funding
Valuation reaches $852B post-money; Amazon, SoftBank and Nvidia anchor.
May 28 '26
Anthropic Series H
Funding
$65B raised at a $965B valuation — nearly triple the Series G just three months prior.
Jun 1 '26
Anthropic files for IPO
Corporate
Confidential filing at the $965B valuation.
Jun 9 '26
Claude Fable 5 & Mythos 5 launch
Launch
Anthropic's most capable general model, paired with a restricted cyberdefense variant.
Jun 12 '26
US forces global Fable 5 suspension
Regulatory
Commerce Dept export-control order after a jailbreak reportedly leaked Mythos-tier capability.
Jun 26 '26
GPT-5.6 Sol gated preview begins
Launch
Limited rollout to ~20 partner orgs pending a government safety review.
Jun 28 '26
Grok 4.5 private beta
Launch
SpaceX/Tesla beta testers get early access.
Jun 30 '26
Export controls on Fable 5 lifted
Regulatory
White House clears the suspension after an 18-day review.
Jul 1 '26
Claude Fable 5 restored globally
Launch
Restored with an added safety filter routing <5% of sessions to Opus 4.8.
Jul 8 '26
Grok 4.5 public launch
Launch
Ships under the SpaceXAI brand; not yet available in the EU.
Jul 9 '26
GPT-5.6 public release
Launch
Ends the 12-day CAISI government gating period.
Jul 9 '26
Muse Spark 1.1 launches
Launch
Meta's first paid API model — public preview, US developers only.
What happened next

Reception & controversy

META

First paid API model from Meta — press framed it as “chasing Anthropic and OpenAI” (CNBC) and “Meta Starts Charging for AI” (Bloomberg). Reviewed as credible but not frontier-leading, and priced below every rival.

xAI

Cursor's CEO called it his team's daily driver; best agentic tool-use score on Artificial Analysis's board. Community reaction centered on Musk political-bias trust concerns — the loudest theme on Hacker News — plus an open EU DSA investigation.

OpenAI

Released only after a 12-day, government-brokered CAISI safety review — the standout story. Driven by Sol's top bio-risk score (68.4% on a pathogen capability test) and near-classified cyber capability; OpenAI publicly pushed back on the precedent.

Anthropic

US Commerce Dept forced a global suspension June 12 after a jailbreak reportedly leaked Mythos-tier capability through Fable 5's guardrails. Anthropic argued the same exploit could hit GPT-5.5, unrestricted. Restored July 1; two-thirds of enterprise users had already hedged with fallback models.

Reading the data

  • ·GPT-5.6 discloses no SWE-bench, GPQA, AIME, or ARC-AGI scores at launch — a genuine gap in OpenAI's own materials, not a research miss.
  • ·Claude Fable 5's headline benchmark figures (95% SWE-bench Verified, 80.3% SWE-bench Pro) come from third-party aggregators, not Anthropic's launch post, which speaks mostly in qualitative superlatives.
  • ·Grok 4.5's “1.5T-parameter V9” architecture claim is leak-sourced (CometAPI) and unconfirmed by xAI directly.
  • ·Muse Spark 1.1 has almost no independently disclosed quantitative benchmarks — Meta's post is largely qualitative marketing copy.
  • ·Terminal-Bench 2.1 scores for Fable 5 conflict across sources (88.0% vs. 83.4%) — likely different eval harnesses; both are noted.
  • ·Meta and xAI cumulative funding totals are third-party (Tracxn) rollups, not company-published lifetime figures.
  • ·Meta is a public company — its “funding” isn't comparable to the VC rounds raised by the other three labs.